The coming match with Croatia this Friday has placed Scotland in a situation where the team either wins or is relegated from the top division of the UEFA Nations League. A defeat will condemn Scotland to relegation if Poland avoids defeat against Portugal, while even a draw could prove costly if Poland prevails. Meanwhile, Croatia is closing in on a quarterfinal spot and would be keen to seal it with a positive result in Glasgow.
Match Preview
Scotland go into this crucial game on the back of a dire Nations League campaign. A hard-fought 0-0 draw against Portugal last month went some way to easing the pressure, but they still prop up Group 1 with just one point. Recent form has been underwhelming, extending their home winless streak to six matches and failing to secure a competitive win in their last 10 games. Another slip-up here and they will match their worst-ever winless run, set in 1998.
They have also struggled to hold onto leads, as evident from the conceding of late goals in previous matches against both Portugal and Poland. The last time they played Croatia, for instance, the early goal that Ryan Christie scored was overweight by a Croatian comeback as VAR disallowed Che Adams’ equalizer to add to Scotland’s frustrations.
Scotland require at least four points from their last two games to stay clear of relegation, but even a third-place finish may only mean a relegation playoff, raising the stakes for Steve Clarke’s side.
While Croatia are almost there for qualification, they will play with confidence at Hampden Park, having never been winners in Scotland. It was their 2-1 win over Scotland last month-where Igor Matanovic and Andrej Kramaric scored the goals-that gave their campaign the needed boost. So far, seven points have been collected by Croatia, which means qualification into the knockout rounds could be made possible with a win or even a draw, assuming Poland can’t beat Portugal.
Having won consistently in the Nations League, Croatia has scored in each of their last 14 away games, averaging over two goals per game. With offensive momentum and tactical experience, Croatia could be problematic to an unfavourable Scotland defense.
Form Guide
Scotland Nations League form: LLLD
Scotland form (all competitions): DLLLLD
Croatia Nations League form: LWWD
Croatia form (all competitions): DDLWWD
Team News
Scotland are boosted by the return of Jack Hendry, John McGinn, and Stuart Armstrong, though Torino striker Che Adams misses out with a thigh injury, meaning there will be a three-way fight for the striker spot between Tommy Conway, Lyndon Dykes, and Lawrence Shankland. McGinn is likely to be sandwiched in an imposing midfield alongside Scott McTominay and Billy Gilmour against the mercurial Croatian talisman Luka Modric.
Croatia also have some absences, as both Lovro Majer and Bruno Petkovic have been ruled out because of injury. But their seasoned squad – which includes Modric and Ivan Perisic – boasts a plethora of international experience. Goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic is suspended, so Augsburg’s Nediljko Labrovic is expected to start, with Craig Gordon coming in to deputize for Scotland’s injured Angus Gunn.
Predicted Lineups
Scotland: Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hendry, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; McGinn, McTominay, Doak; Dykes
Croatia: Labrovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Baturina, Kramaric; Matanovic
Prediction
Scotland 1-1 Croatia
Whereas Croatia enters this match with relative freedom, Scotland has a fair amount of pressure to avoid relegation. While the side has been performing better of late, a home win might continue to evade Scotland as Croatia’s experience and defensive solidity could earn them a draw and a valuable point.
